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Sack Hardwick 2017?

Discussion in 'Richmond Ramblings' started by Mr Babilla, Mar 11, 2017.

  1. Gracie

    Gracie Loved Site Immortal

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    Hughes coached Melbourne to a three peat 39 to 41 then again in 48

    Picked up another one in Jack Worrell

    And another in Percy Bentley - coached Richmond 34 then @#$%ton 45 47
     
  2. Black

    Black Loved Site Immortal

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    See , no respect !

    I've been to War...burton



    Exactly.

    Now ffs Big Fella , give us the stat !

    How many coaches have >>

    A - Coached for longer than seven years at their first club without winning a flag ?

    B - Been retained as coach after seven years without winning a flag and have then won a flag ?
     
  3. thebigricho

    thebigricho Loved Site Immortal

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    Righto I'll have a go at it.

    Malthouse coached a flag in his 9th season but had changed clubs after 6 years.

    One I had previously missed was Blight as I'd overlooked a year as Captain Coach so he won in his 8th year but first at Adelaide.

    Mark Thompson coached his first flag flag in his 8th season at Geelong.

    0 Flags: Chris Scott (7 years), Damien Hardwick (7 years), Rodney Eade (7 years twice (Swans, Dogs)), Neale Daniher (10 years), John Northey (7 years (Melb)), Terry Wallace (7 years), Neil Craig (8 years), Dean Laidley (7 years), Bill Stephen (9 years), Bob Rose (8 years), Ted Whitten (13 years), Wally Carter (12 years), Jack Hale (8 years), Arthur Olliver (7 years).

    So of coaches who have been 7 years or more at one club without a flag, 1 has gone on to win one out of 16. So a 6.25% chance.

    For interests sake here are the years each coach won their first flag in.

    1: Bentley, Minogue, Joyce, C Scott, Parratt, Ricketts, Nicholls, Bissett, Rankin, Holden, Howson, Clymo, Rush
    2: Hafey, Parkin, Clark, Longmire, Jesaulenko, Jewell, Coleman, Hughson, Chadwick, Barker, Angus, Diggins, Beveridge,
    3: Kennedy, Hickey, Dyer
    4: Sheedy, Reynolds, Pagan, Clarkson, Kyne, Roos, Sutton, Belcher
    5: Barassi, Matthews, Worsfold, Worrall, Davis,
    6: McHale, Jeans, Hughes, Williams,
    7: Smith, Walls*
    8: Thompson, Blight**
    9: Malthouse*,

    Never won a flag:
    17: Eade**
    14: Northey***, Rose*,
    13: Stephen*, Whitten
    12: Wallace*, Carter,
    11: Lyon*
    10: Daniher, Ayres*, Hale*,
    9: Craig*
    8: Hardwick, B Scott, McCaskill*, Hall***, Kelly*,
    7: Laidley, Olliver, Connolly*, Maher**, Scanlen**, Killigrew*,
    6: Judge*, Shaw*, Skilton*, Thomas, Buckley, Ratten, Goggin*,

    *Second club
    **Third club
    *** Fourth club

    The essential point out of all of that is statistically, Hardwick has only a slightly better chance of coaching a flag at Richmond than any of us do.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2017
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  4. BigTigerCasey

    BigTigerCasey Revered Coterie Member

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    Okay, so you want to narrow it down to only their first premiership?

    Over the period 1942 to 2016, there have been 33 individual coaches who have won a premiership.
    Irrespective of whether it was their first, second or third club, the percentage of coaches who won a premiership in their first to Nth year of coaching at that club is:

    Year 1 - 12%
    Year 2 - 30%
    Year 3 - 18%
    Year 4 - 18%
    Year 5 - 6%
    Year 7 - 9%
    Year 13 - 3%
    Year 19 - 3%

    Your accuracy after the point of order has diminished, @thebigricho ...
     
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  5. thebigricho

    thebigricho Loved Site Immortal

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    Who won their first flag in year 13 or 19?
     
  6. BigTigerCasey

    BigTigerCasey Revered Coterie Member

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    Frank Hughes (MELB - 1948) won his first at his second club. Had been coaching a total of 21 years (8 at Richmond) before he snagged it.
    Reg Hickey (GEE - 1951) won at his first (and only) club after 19 years. Edit: did a repeat the next year and coached another 7 years without a repeat.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2017
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  7. thebigricho

    thebigricho Loved Site Immortal

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  8. BigTigerCasey

    BigTigerCasey Revered Coterie Member

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    No, my problem was not looking PRE-1942, I only looked post '42. So if they have coached pre-42 and won a flag I have missed it.

    D'ohh
     
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  9. 17Sash

    17Sash Seriously Well Liked

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    In addition to DH, we have a talented array of coaching assistants and football department staff.
    We have a healthy membership, debt free, exciting indigenous initiatives, and a planned enhancement of the facilities.
    Statistics can be adulterated to serve one's own ideology.
    I personally believe we retain staff until 2020. #gotiges
     
  10. Graeme Bowman

    Graeme Bowman Revered

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    Thank you for reminding us of your opinion every couple of days for the past few years. It is a great service you provide for those of us who tend to forget things not constantly rammed down our throats.
     
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  11. Vines

    Vines Loved Site Immortal

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    You're an essential poster GB.
     
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  12. Gracie

    Gracie Loved Site Immortal

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    So now to get me excited, mathematically, of the coaches who won a premiership in their first 4 years, how many took over from a coach who had been there 7 years or more and not won a premiership?

    :D
     
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  13. BigTigerCasey

    BigTigerCasey Revered Coterie Member

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    Won't make you excited, unless you look at coaches in their first 8 years at their first club, who took over from coaches at their second club who hadn't won a premiership at either their first club or their second club....

    :p:D:rolleyes:
     
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  14. Rumpole

    Rumpole Revered

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    It saddens me though that signing Hardwick and staff to 2020 would no longer be much of an extension.

    Bring out your dead!
     
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  15. 17Sash

    17Sash Seriously Well Liked

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    Which do you prefer to nominate, Graeme, 2020 or 2021?
    I am flexible on both dates. :D
     
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  16. Vosstiger

    Vosstiger Revered Assistant Coach Coterie Member

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    It just goes to show that some statistic's are crap and hardly relevant. How many coaches playing this style with this list (which is all I care about) can win a flag? and what do they have to do?

    It's all just gibberish and hardly pertinent. Hafey won his flags because he was a fitness fanatic. All modern day sides are fitter than his side for example.

    The game even today does not resemble that when Hardwick started. Sometimes we can drive ourselves crazy with stats.

    It's like Rioli can have a great game with 8 touches but Cotchin would be a total failure with 8 touches.

    Stats are useless without subjectivity. This by all means is not aimed at anyone at all. I feel at the moment that Clarkson is coaching poorly but he isn't a poor coach.

    I think Hardwick is a much better coach now than at the beginning. Is he good enough? That is the question. If considering that he is finally imo reaching a capable standard should we start again with another coach to do the cycle all over again.

    I think that a coach who wins a flag in year 1 or 2 hasn't inherited a bad list If they replaced someone after 5 years who's to say that the former incumbent wouldn't have done the same thing.

    Then you have someone like Buckley who has produced backwards performances from what was a good list. To me that is much more damning.

    Should Hardwick coach next year? At this stage I am on the fence.
     
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  17. BigTigerCasey

    BigTigerCasey Revered Coterie Member

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    Bump
     
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  18. Ms Tantie

    Ms Tantie Loved

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    Now. Do it now. DO IT! Please do it now. Now, now, now, now...

    NOW!
    Ms Tantie.
    xox
     
  19. BigTigerCasey

    BigTigerCasey Revered Coterie Member

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  20. 17Sash

    17Sash Seriously Well Liked

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    If one of the Melbourne Volvos, Essendon Red Bulls, or Fremantle Sailors loses tomorrow, we are still in the eight. Perspective. We need 7-8 wins from 13 matches. Exciting times! :D
     

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